Question for Option 1

Use several (at least five, they are all short) of the above articles to investigate why instability is returning to emerging markets like Argentina and Turkey.  In your essay address several questions.  What are the sources of instability in Argentina, Turkey, and other emerging markets?  How does US policy affect emerging markets?  What are the mechanisms that produce crises in emerging markets?  How are emerging market crises related to the “impossible trinity” and debt flows

Readings for Option 2 The Future of the Dollar and the Renminbi

(Project Syndicate and Financial Times articles are in Blackboard)

Kaushik Basu. “America’s Argentina Risk.”  Project Syndicate (September 26, 2019).

“Chaguan: The West is now surer that China is not about to liberalise.”  The Economist (November 16, 2019).

Andrew Shang and Xioa Geng.  “From Dollar to e SDR.”  Project Syndicate (April 27, 2018).

Christopher Smart.  “Could the Renminbi Replace the Dollar?”  Project Syndicate (February 2, 2018).

Paola Subacchi.  “Why the Renminbi Will Not Rule.”  Project Syndicate (October 20, 2017).

Jeffrey D. Sachs.  “Trump’s Policies Will Displace the Dollar.”  Project Syndicate (September 3, 2018).

Gita Gopinath.  “The Elusive Benefits of Flexible Exchange Rates.”  Project Syndicate (December 4, 2017).

Owen Humpage.  “Will special drawing rights supplant the dollar?”  VoxEU (May 8, 2009).  https://voxeu.org/article/sdr-vs-what-it-takes-be-international-reserve-currency.

Matteo Maggiori, Brent Neiman, and Jesse Schreger.  “The rise of the dollar and fall of the euro in global asset trade.”  VoxEU (June 18, 2018).  https://voxeu.org/article/rise-dollar-and-fall-euro-global-asset-trade.

Benjamin Cohen.  “Trump’s Strong Dollar Weakness.”  Project Syndicate (August 22, 2018).

Barry Eichengreen.  “The Dollar and Its Discontents.”  Project Syndicate (October 10, 2018).

Cathy Zhang.  “International Currency Competition Redux.”  VoxEU (January 9, 2016).  http://voxeu.org/article/revisiting-international-currency-competition.

Henny Sender.  “The weaponisation of the dollar risks rebounding on the US.”  Financial Times (October 16, 2018).   https://www.ft.com/content/b43e560a-d114-11e8-a9f2-7574db66bcd5.

Linda Goldberg, Signe Krogstrup, John Lipsky, Hélène Rey.  “Why is financial stability essential for key currencies in the international monetary system?”  VoxEU(July 26, 2014).  https://voxeu.org/article/new-thinking-reserve-currency-status.

Alex Cukierman.  “The Crisis and the Renminbi’s International Role.”  VoxEU (January 7, 2015).  http://voxeu.org/article/global-crisis-and-global-renminbi.

Arvind Subramanian and Martin Kessler.  “The renminbi bloc is here: Asia down, the rest of the world to go?”  VoxEU (October 27, 2012).  http://voxeu.org/article/renminbi-bloc-here-asia-down-rest-world-go.

Yu Yongdong, “China Confronts the Mundell-Fleming Trilemma” Project Syndicate (February 26, 2018).

Harold James and Domenico Lombardi, “What Enabled Bretton Woods?” Project Syndicate (July 8, 2014).

Jose Antonio Ocampo, “Time for a True Global Currency,” Project Syndicate (April 5, 2019).

Ronald McKinnon.  “The Unloved Dollar Standard.”  Project Syndicate (January 23, 2013).

Planet Money Why the World Still Needs Dollars 8 12 11: http://www.npr.org/blogs/money/2011/08/12/139583229/the-friday-podcast-why-the-world-still-needs-dollars

Barry Eichengreen, Arnaud Mehl, and Livia Chitu, “When did the Dollar Overtake the Sterling as the Leading International Currency? Evidence from Bond Markets,” VoxEU (May 23, 2012).  http://www.voxeu.org/article/when-did-dollar-overtake-sterling-leading-international-currency-evidence-bond-markets.

Uri Dadush and Bennett Stancil, “Why are Reserves so Big?” VoxEU (May 9, 2011).  http://www.voxeu.org/article/why-are-reserves-so-big-and-who-blame.

Livia Chitu, Barry Eichengreen, and Arnaud Mehl, “One or Multiple International Currencies?  Evidence from the History of the Oil Market,” VoxEU (March 17, 2014).  http://www.voxeu.org/article/there-room-more-one-international-currency.

Eswar Prasad (interview with Viv Davies, mp3), “Love It or Hate It . . . the Dollar’s Here to Stay,” VoxEU (March 29, 2014).  http://www.voxeu.org/vox-talks/love-it-or-hate-it-dollars-here-stay.

NPR Planet Money, “The Dollar at the Center of the World,” (July 16, 2014).  http://www.npr.org/blogs/money/2014/07/16/331743569/episode-552-the-dollar-at-the-center-of-the-world.

Question for Option 2 The Future of the Dollar and the Renminbi

Use several (at least five, they are all short) of the above articles to investigate the shifting role of the dollar and its reserve currency status.  In your essay address several questions.  What is a reserve currency?  What are the costs and benefits of a country possessing the reserve currency?  Is the dollar in a relative decline as a reserve currency?  What are the alternatives?  What is the future of the dollar as the reserve currency?

Reading for Option 3 Low/Negative Interest Rates

Gillian Tett. “The Downside of Negative Interest Rates.” Financial Times (October 9, 2019).  See pickup folder.

Tommy Stubbington. “Negative rates: investors go through looking glass to sub-zero yields.” Financial Times (October 3, 2019).  See pickup folder.

Laurence Fletcher.  “How hedge funds are thriving in a world of negative-yielding debt.” Financial Times (October3, 2019).  See pickup folder.

Martin Arnold.  “ECB set to consider damage done by negative rates.”  Financial Times (September 4, 2019).  See pickup folder.

Olli Rehn.  “Monetary policy should prevent deflation and avoid a bad equilibrium.” VoxEU (October 15, 2019).  https://voxeu.org/article/monetary-policy-should-prevent-deflation-and-avoid-bad-equilibrium.

Felix Geiger and Fabian Schupp.  “How interest rate expectations respond to monetary policy in a low interest-rate setting.”  VoxEU (September 26, 2018).  https://voxeu.org/article/interest-rate-expectations-and-monetary-policy-low-interest-rate-setting.

Sayuri Shirai.  “Declining long-term interest rates and implications for monetary policy: The case of Japan.”  VoxEU (October 6, 2017).  https://voxeu.org/article/declining-japanese-long-term-interest-rates-and-implications-monetary-policy.

Jan Willem van den End and Marco Hoeberichts.  “The curse of persistently low real interest rates.”  VoxEU (April 25, 2018).  https://voxeu.org/article/curse-persistently-low-real-interest-rates.

Jose A. Lopez, Andrew Rose, and Mark Spiegel.  “Bank performance under negative interest rates.”  VoxEU (October 2, 2018).  https://voxeu.org/article/bank-performance-under-negative-interest-rates.

Anders Aslund.  “Surveying the Damage of Low Interest Rates.”  Project Syndicate (December 14, 2017).  https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/damage-from-low-interest-rates-by-anders-aslund-2017-12

Yanis Varoufakis.  “The Politics of Negative Interest Rates.” Project Syndicate (August 22, 2016).  https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/negative-interest-rates-reveal-politics-of-money-by-yanis-varoufakis-2016-08.

Carmen Reinhart.  “What’s New About Today’s Low Interest Rates?”  Project Syndicate (July 28, 2016).  https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/explaining-persistent-low-interest-rates-by-carmen-reinhart-2016-07.

Mark Cliffe. “Negative rates, negative reactions.” Voxeu.org (February 26, 2016).  http://voxeu.org/article/negative-rates-negative-reactions.

Question for Option 3 Low/Negative Interest Rate

Use several (at least five, they are all short) of the above articles to investigate the causes for and implications from low/negative interest rates.  In your essay address several questions.  What rate so low?  What are the costs and benefits of this rate regime? Is everyone becoming like Japan?

Eichengreen Emerging Risks for Emerging Economies PS 4 10 19.pdf GradyEmerging market currencies set for biggest weekly drop since August FT 4 26 19.pdf GuzmanThe Trouble with Argentina’s Economy PS 4 10 19.pdf ONeillThe Turkish Emerging Market Time Bomb PS 8 14 18.pdf PrasadWhat’s Driving the Global Slowdown PS 4 8 19.pdf TorresThe IMF Is Fueling an Argentine Crisis—Again PS 4 18 19.pdf Turkey props up reserves with eye on shaky lira FT 4 18 19.pdf Turkish markets weaken on central bank reluctance to raise rates FT 4 25 19.pdf VelascoThe Challenge of Monetary Independence PS 3 11 19.pdf Frankel How a Weaponized Dollar Could Backfire PS 2019.pdf Jose Antonio Ocampo, “Time for a True Global Currency,” Project Syndicate (April 5, 2019)..pdf McKinnon The Unloved Dollar Standard PS 2013.pdf Subacchi Locking China Out of the Dollar System PS 2019.pdf YongdingChina Confronts the Mundell-Fleming Trilemma PS 2018.pdf Argentina on the Brink FT 4 26 19.pdf Eichengreen A World of Multiple Reserve Currencies.pdf Eichengreen The Dollar and Its Discontents.pdf Eichengreen The Renminbi Challenge.pdf Smart Could the Renminbi Replace the Dollar 2018.pdf SubacchiWhy the Renminbi Will Not Rule 2017.pdf WigglesworthEmerging Markets in a ‘Goldilocks’ Environment FT 3 11 19.pdf Arnold ECB set to consider damage done by negative rates FT 9 4 19.pdf Aslund Surveying the Damage of Low Interest Rates PS 2016.pdf Borio The Interest-Rate Enigma PS 2014.pdf Eichengreen Losing Interest PS 2014.pdf Fletcher How hedge funds are thriving in a world of negative-yielding debt FT 10 3 19.pdf Reinhart What’s New About Today’s Low Interest Rates PS 2016.pdf Rogoff The Long Mystery of Low Interest Rates PS 2013.pdf Roubini The Negative Way to Growth PS 2015.pdf Stubbington Negative rates investors go through looking glass to sub-zero yields FT 10 3 19.pdf Tett The Downside of Negative Interest Rates FT 19.pdf Varoufakis The Politics of Negative Interest Rates PS 2016.pdf